Those who publish football picks routinely point out the long shots and the sure-to-wins, but when it comes to winning big in NCAA and NFL football pools, a pocketful of sleepers – those teams that come out of nowhere to be huge contenders in the post season – can be your best friend. This is especially true if you like betting against the spread. The truth is that statistically, most teams that fall into the possible “sleepers” category regularly beat the spread, and often win those games outright. Many of these teams, like the Bengals, for example, fly under the radar as they steadily build their lines. Then, one year they break through to win major championships “out of nowhere.”
This is why most so-called sleepers in either the NFL or NCAA really shouldn’t be a huge surprise. When you put together last year’s records with what happens as the teams start going head to head, it’s not hard to start putting two and two together and coming up with the best against the spread NFL and NCAA football picks. Now that the 2013-2014 football season is underway, things are starting to shape up. Here are a few football picks that may come as a big surprise to anyone who isn’t in the know.
BCS NCAA Football Picks
While everyone is already handing the CFB Championship to the Crimson Tide, there are a few teams nipping at their heels… and if schedules turn out as easy as they look, Alabama just might have some serious competition. Tops among them are the Oregon Ducks, who are fielding a pair of Heisman contenders, and the LSU Tigers, are looking very good. With all the talent at the top of the list, you might want to look a bit further down the odds for a team that will surprise – and put a bit of money in your pocket by betting against the spread instead of shooting for straight wins in game after game. With 21 to 1 odds, you wouldn’t think the Miami Hurricanes have a shot, but the Canes may have a few surprises under their helmets. They’ve got some serious talent at QB and RB, and they’ve already pulled off a win over Florida, proving that they’ve got more in their corner than they’ve demonstrated recently. If they can shape up their offense and put in some serious work, a Top 10 finish is eminently possible.
NFL Football Picks
It seems that every year, betting sites trot out the Cincinnati Bengals as the long shot, Super Bowl sleeper favorite – and year after year, the Bengals live up to their reputation as a team that chokes on big games. If the early Bengals win over the Steelers is any indication, this could be the year they finally come through. The Bengals are fielding an offensive line that is better than you think (and isn’t that the definition of sleeper?) and their defensive line was one of the best in the NFL last year. Keep your ears and eyes on the tiger. This could be the year they pull it off.
When wagering, look for opportunities to bet against the spread on these teams as the season progresses. They may not go all the way, but they’re sure to eke out some surprising wins and close calls that make them worth a second look.